A new analysis claims that over half the wind turbine market will be dominated by just three manufacturers by 2020; as it stands, a top three of Vestas, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy and GE Renewable Energy are forecast to control more than half the global market by next year. Furthermore, Chinese OEMs Goldwind and Envision will complete the top five, thanks to their international expansion in Latin America, Africa and Asia-Pacific, and their popularity due to reliability and track record.
Research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables (WMPR) projects that the top five’s market share will reach 68% in 2020, having risen from 47% in 2014, to 57% in 2017 and finally to 66% in 2018.
European manufacturers will struggle to lead the pack
This also means that European manufacturers, Enercon and Nordex may be facing an uphill battle as they struggle to compete with these key players, despite an increased order activity over the last 12 months and the analysts’ expectations of a strong performance in 2020-21 outside of their core European markets.
Offshore will hold combined share of more than 60%
Siemens Gamesa and MHI Vestas look set to continue their domination of the offshore sector, predicted to hold a combined market share of more than 60% by 2023. Their track records should help to keep them ahead of rival GE Renewable Energy, which should focus on commercialising its 12MW Haliade-X turbine in forthcoming auctions if it wants to win a greater market share.
With the commissioning of three 6MW Haliade turbines off Fujian last year, and its plans to set up a manufacturing facility in Guandong – the country’s largest offshore province – GE continues to target the Chinese offshore sector.
However, this is so far a market that is dominated by domestic players, as SEwind, Goldwind, Ming Yang and Envision are projected to control more than 90% of the market by 2023, leaving just 10% for other turbine OEMs.
Goldwind remains China’s undisputed leader due to track record, product reliability and supply chain dependability, however, Envision emerged as a shining star in the Chinese OEM competitive landscape thanks to a focus on low wind and ulta-low wind speed segments.
US remains single largest market for global leaders
In the near-term, for global leaders Vestas, GE and SGRE, the US will be a crucial market. SGRE is working to revive its prospects in the US before the federal renewable electricity production tax credit fades, while NextEra and Invenergy are maintaining their historical preference for GE as a turbine supplier.
Vestas has been successful with utilities and IPPs from both the US and Europe, which can be seen in the large number of turbines being shipped to MidAmerican, Xcel, EDF and Avangrid. While Vestas dominates the EMEARC region due to geographic diversification and a strong presence in emerging market auctions, such as Russia, the Middle East, and Africa. SGRE’s success in European markets including Spain and Turkey, and emerging African markets such as Egypt and Morocco will strengthen the company’s presence in the region.
After two challenging transition years in India, OEM activity has gained momentum, and it will certainly be interesting to see if these predictions are met in the coming years.